ERCOT Plans for Surge in Power Demand; Oncor to Develop Multiple Transmission Projects

by R.A. “Jake” Dyer

With the emergence of new energy-hungry cryptocurrency mining operations, AI data centers, and hydrogen-related manufacturing plants, ERCOT finds itself experiencing a surge in energy demand like never before. In 2030, for instance, ERCOT foresees peak demand reaching 150 gigawatts. That is about 80 percent more than this year’s peak.

This surge will bring new transmission challenges for ERCOT and to plan for them, the grid operator employs both its traditional Regional Transmission Planning process and a separate Permian Basin Reliability Plan. The PUC also has called for the deployment of massive new 765-kV transmission lines for the first time ever. These ultra-high-capacity systems will complement the smaller 138 kV and 345 kV lines traditionally used to serve the state’s transmission network.

ERCOT recently released a summary of authorized transmission projects from the latest iteration of its Permian Basin Reliability Plan. This summary, which can be found on the PUC website under Project No. 55718, shows that the Oncor electric utility will be the developer for scores of these facilities.
Separately, ERCOT has also released maps showing the general locations of anticipated lines both within the Permian Basin and statewide. The Steering Committee of Cities Served by Oncor, a municipal coalition, has reproduced clarified versions of those maps that you can find on their website, here. The original maps can be found in a January 2025 ERCOT document found on the PUC website, also under Project No. 55718.

For the most part, the exact routes for all these new lines have not been finalized. That process will be handled by the PUC over the next several years through complex “Certificate of Convenience and Necessity” proceedings that pit the state’s power needs against the needs of property owners. Transmission providers and stakeholders — such as municipalities and private citizens — can participate in this process.

Jake Dyer is a Policy Analyst in the Firm’s Energy and Utility Practice Group. If you would like additional information or have questions related to this article or other energy and utility matters, please contact Jake at 512.322.5898 or jdyer@lglawfirm.com.